Democrats' surge in Tennessee throws new uncertainty onto GOP's 2026 House map

The results from the hotly contested special election in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District are in, handing a decisive victory to Republicans. But both Republicans and Democrats are drawing political ammunition from the outcome.

President Donald Trump proclaimed it was a "great night for the Republican Party!!!" after GOP nominee Matt Van Epps defeated Democratic rival Aftyn Behn in the high-stakes race to succeed former GOP Rep. Mark Green, who resigned from office in June to take a private sector job.

But Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair Ken Martin, pointing to Van Epps' roughly 9-point margin in a solidly-red district Trump carried by 22 points a year ago, argued that "Democrats are on offense and Republicans are on the ropes."

With the GOP clinging to a razor-thin majority in the House, the special election was seen as a must-win for Republicans. And now, both parties are drawing conclusions on what the results mean for next year's midterm elections, when the House majority is up for grabs.

TRUMP-BACKED REPUBLICAN KEEPS CRUCIAL CONGRESSIONAL SEAT IN GOP HANDS

And there's a divide among Democrats, with moderates questioning whether Behn, who was dubbed the "AOC of Tennessee" in a comparison to progressive champion Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., was too far to the left for the district - which is located in central and western Tennessee, stretching from Kentucky to Alabama, and including parts of Nashville.

With so much on the line, outside groups aligned with both parties shelled out millions of dollars to run ads in the race. And the DNC and the rival Republican National Committee (RNC) each poured resources into the showdown, which included dispatching staffers onto the campaign trail.

DECISION DAY: TRUMP, SPEAKER JOHNSON, AOC BLITZ CAMPAIGN TRAIL ON EVE OF KEY SHOWDOWN

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., spent the entire day on election eve with Van Epps, joining the GOP nominee at a slew of rallies and stops across the district. He was joined by RNC Chair Joe Gruters.

Van Epps, a military combat veteran who piloted helicopters and former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services, said in his victory speech that his win "represented a defining moment for Tennessee and for the direction of the country." 

And Van Epps told Fox News Digital that his win was "a resounding victory."

Trump, whose endorsement of Van Epps helped the candidate win the GOP nomination in a competitive primary last month, described Tuesday's victory as a "BIG Congressional WIN."

Van Epps told supporters at his Election Night watch party that "we are grateful to the President for his unwavering support that charted this movement and catapulted us to victory. President Trump was all-in with us. That made the difference."

While falling short of flipping the seat, which would have been catastrophic for the GOP, Democrats see a silver lining.

WATCH: WHAT AFTYN BEHN TOLD FOX NEWS DIGITAL ON ELECTION EVE

"Aftyn Behn's overperformance in this Trump +22 district is historic and a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterms," Martin argued. "The fact that Republicans spent millions to protect this Trump +22 district and still lost so much ground should have the GOP shaking in their boots. Democrats are all gas and no brakes as we head into next year, organizing everywhere and competing in elections across the country."

And Behn, a state representative and former healthcare community organizer, told Fox News Digital on Election Day that "what starts here changes this country."

Asked if she would be a winner even without winning the election, she said, "For me, we've already won over the hearts and minds of so many Tennesseans and across the country."

But Republicans dispute the Democrats' narrative.

"Special elections are strange because a lot of people take for granted in a deep red district like this that the Republican is just going to win automatically. Nothing's automatic," Johnson told Fox News Digital at a Van Epps rally on the eve of the election.

Johnson pointed to Rep. Ron Estes of Kansas, who narrowly won a special election in 2017, just five months after Trump carried the district by nearly 30 points in his 2016 White House victory. Estes went on to win re-election in the 2018 midterms by 19 points.

A few months after Estes' victory, Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina won a 2017 special election by 3 points in a district Trump carried by 17 points the previous November. But Norman went on to win re-election in the ensuing midterms by 16 points.

Johnson, aiming to motivate low-propensity Trump supporters, who often don't vote when the president's not on the ballot, emphasized that "we need everybody to turn out."

Turnout in special elections is often low, but that wasn't the case on Tuesday. According to unofficial results, roughly 180,000 votes were cast, close to the turnout in the district in the 2022 midterms, when Green won re-election by over 20 points.

DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICANS, GO ALL IN ON FINAL 2025 CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT BOX SHOWDOWN

While Democrats are confident that the results in Tennessee, along with their decisive victories last month in the 2025 elections, are a sign of things to come in the 2026 midterms, Johnson told Fox News' Chad Pergram on Wednesday that "we have a great record to run on in '26. And I'm very bullish about the midterms. I'm convinced we're going to defy history and grow this majority."

While Behn was laser focused on the issues of affordability and healthcare during her campaign, Republicans blasted her as a "radical" and highlighted past controversial comments she made.

"She does not represent the values of Tennessee or of America. She is as far left as you can get. She's a radical," Van Epps claimed in a Fox News Digital interview.

Johnson argued on Monday that Behn was a "radical" and "a dangerous far leftist. And she will be a rubber stamp for Hakeem Jeffries and AOC and all the radicals in Congress."

Liam Kerr, co-founder of the Welcome PAC, a Democrat-aligned group which advocates for moderate candidates, called Behn "a missed opportunity."

"Democrats in red districts can't just talk affordability and hope voters don't notice they walk left on everything else. If candidates don't match their district, Republicans will make sure the voters know. Despite a well-run race and significant investment, Tennessee voters knew Aftyn Behn did not share their views," he argued.

But Behn, hours before the election was called, told Fox News Digital, "I think the electorate is shifting to accept a candidate like me that has a progressive track record."

And Behn said she's seen "so many young people coming up to me to say they're running for office because this race has inspired them to do so."

And Amanda LItman, president of Run for Something, which supports younger, progressive candidates, pointing to Behn's performance, said "we've got great candidates with local experience & authentic communication skills ready to run and win in places no one saw competitive six months (or years) ago."

Fox News' Asher Redd contributed to this story.